Memo To Scott Brown: Don’t Make Capuano’s Mistakes

by Brian Maloney, December 8th, 2009 at 11:30pm

With the results in, it’s already clear that Michael Capuano blew an enormous opportunity to win the Democratic nomination by failing to go negative against Martha Coakley (for fear of a backlash) and draw a clear distinction on the issues.

Now, Republican nominee Scott Brown has just six weeks to learn from Capuano’s mistakes and take a wildly different approach.

Think Brown can’t win? Here’s why he can:

— With local media outlets already declaring Coakley our next senator, Martha’s infamous coasting will become even more pronounced. She will put next to nothing into her effort from here, saving campaign funds for future purposes.

— Since Coakley’s supporters now assume the race is over, they will do little campaigning over the holidays.

— Given that backdrop, turnout on January 19 will be even lower than today’s. We could be well into single digits across the Commonwealth. Motivating your base, even one as small as the GOP’s, makes it possible to overcome that.

— At the national level, Democrats are busy alienating almost every group, from the far-left to moderates, which further depresses turnout as supporters become disillusioned.

— Oddly enough, the one media outlet seeing a potential victory path for Brown, if remote, is the New York Times:

About 37 percent of the state’s 4.1 million registered voters are Democrats, and about 11 percent are Republicans, giving Ms. Coakley an advantage over Mr. Brown in the general election. Although Massachusetts has elected three Republican governors since 1990, it has not sent a Republican to the Senate in 37 years.

Mr. Brown, 50, is a lawyer and a lieutenant colonel in the Massachusetts National Guard who has served in the state Legislature since 1996. He opposes same-sex marriage and the health care legislation being debated in Congress, and supports President Obama’s decision to send more troops to Afghanistan.

Winning unaffiliated voter, who make up half of the state’s electorate, will be crucial for Mr. Brown. He has touted his ability to work across party lines, while casting himself as the only candidate with conservative values.

Since almost no one believes Brown can win, what does he have to lose? Why not put the pedal to the floor and see what happens?

Here’s what he must do next:

— Make it clear: this is about the economy, jobs, and taxes. These are winnable positions for Republicans. Set the agenda, it’s not difficult, as Martha’s sole “issue” is her gender.

— Muzzle Howie Carr’s defeatist attitude. Hey Howie, why not help, rather than hinder Brown’s efforts? I cringe every time I hear Howie say that Scott’s only in the race to get his name out there so he can run for AG or another statewide office. Even if true, why say that on the air?

— ABSOLUTELY go after Coakley EVERY SINGLE DAY. Make her life miserable for the next six weeks, that’s what campaigning is all about. And she most certainly deserves it! There’s no reason she should have a free ride simply because that pleases Margery Eagan and the others who failed to nominate Hillary Clinton in 2008.

There’s plenty of ammo out there on Coakley, use it. When Eagan and the Globies are writing angry columns in response, you’ll know you’ve done your job correctly.

— INSIST on a series of debates and scream bloody murder if she refuses. Local media outlets have held debates without Republicans to this point, why should that continue?

— IMMEDIATELY begin a major push for out-of-state contributions. Coakley’s been doing this all along, why shouldn’t the opposition?

— Put together some money and hammer her with ads! Utilize talk radio and finally, let’s see some mailers.

There is no reason whatsoever for Scott Brown to play it safe for the next six weeks. Playing nice or accepting a token opposition candidate role is unacceptable and will only make the margin wider. Worse, a weak result from that kind of misguided strategy will make running for other positions down the road more difficult than ever.

But even a fairly close race would show that Republicans are once again viable in Massachusetts. The New York Times is right: those unaffiliated voters (who stayed home today) are up for grabs. Rile them up.

Bottom line: nice = big loss, while aggressive campaigning is a game-changer.

Entry Filed under: Uncategorized

Similar Posts

• December 8 To January 19
• BREAKING: NEW POLL SHOWS TWO-POINT RACE
• Martha Coakley: One Lousy Poker Player
• He’s REALLY Getting To Her
• BREAKING: SHOCK POLL SHOWS BROWN AHEAD OF COAKLEY