Just more proof that radio ratings are fairly unreliable and, as this story points out, more easily tainted - especially in smaller markets.

Radio needs something akin to the Nielsen boxes that enable TV "overnights" and other snap shot type ratings. Arbitron is trying it with their PPM (Portable People Meters) but it seems to have a lot of bugs yet to work out. There is a big "wait and see" attitude as the heavy hitters ait for the proof of its effectiveness and accuracy, but anything is a better alternative than paper journals. It all depends on WHO actually fills the journal out.

A 55 year old woman with 4 teenagers/college age kids living at home may not accurately reflect the listening habits of her family in the journal. You can bet everyone in that house is not listening to gardening shows on talk radio or smooth jazz but, if Mom is filling out the journal, that's what it looks like come ratings time.

Don't worry guys - no matter what ratings system is devised, The Felon and The Fung Wah Passenger still don't have much of an audience.

Oh, something else I forgot to mention in my post.

How funny would it be for a truly functional and accurate electronic radio meter to be agreed upon, only to discover that a show that everyone assumes is dominant is actually pulling a far smaller audience.

For example, does Clear Channel REALLY want to know the true ratings of The Rush Limbaugh Show, especially since they just inked him to the biggest radio contract in history? With upwards of $400 million on the line, I'm thinking they would be content to let the perception that he is #1 just remain "conventional wisdom". What if the numbers said he was really #4? What then?

I'll bet there are some advertisers and some shareholders out there who would like to know this information.

Brian, in English, please? Will advertisers sue to recoup inflated ad rates? Would this be a good business for a radio-savvy person: auditing the numbers to be sure advertisers are not overpaying for their ads?

And who is the personality? Is it the guy who formerly worked for 'RKO? Or is it the convict?

So many questions in this drama.

Give us the back story. More details! How did this whole thing come to light? Whistle blower?? Watchdog diary review? A setup from a jealous competitor?? And why might the fingers be pointing at a particular air personality familiar to many of us?

I will say, however, that WPRO sounds stronger than it ever has, in spite of this story. WRKO could learn a thing or two by listening to 630AM.

WPRO's programming flow, including talk hosts, topicality, fully functional integral news department...it's ALL there!! Congrats to the PD for striving for excellence, and to management for having the good sense to realize what benefits a strong programmer brings to the value of the station.

Brian, Is there ever any vetting as part of
the hiring process or is it all just boy
scouts honor? What these lay-abouts do and
say on the air has far reaching ears. Why is
it, that even the biggest on air to the just
phoning it in types are NOT nice people and
are found to have some of the worst character
flaws? Shame.

If only six diaries can have such an impact on a station's ratings, you might as well make up the ratings information with such a small sample size. How useful can this data be?

This is MINT. Just imagine the grumbling that ad sales people are doing when their clients roll their eyeballs at charts showing listenership. "Why should we believe your stupid ratings when you probably cheated the system to get them?" I can see commercial spots going for the price of a Happy Meal after this!

I heard Severin bragging that he won his time slot along with all of his colleagues. I found it very hard to believe that he beat Howie ... and that J&M beat Rush ... and despite the convict who in Boston listens to Imus???

Who listens to terrestrial radio now that Stern is on satellite?
And with the merger terrestrial radio is DONE FOR.

Where to start...first, and sadly, most advertisers (and even moreso agencies) NEED the numbers, whether they are accurate or not. Sure every once in a while the books need to be reissued because of something like this (and sometimes for benign reasons too), but the numbers get loaded into the various software systems and life goes on. The revised data will be reloaded on 8/11 and it will be business as usual (sorry Chris).

Who listens to terrestrial radio now that Stern is on satellite? I love Howard, but the answer is far more people are still listening to terrestrial radio than satellite, AND, people who have satellite radios still listen to their terrestrial radios more (in the aggregate). So TSL (time spent listening) is down, but cumulative audience is still huge, exceeded only by TV. Perhaps more importantly, other than traffic, satellite doesn't really have local advertising applications so it isn't a huge threat to terrestrial radio, merger or not. Wi-Fi, once it is pervasive in cars and a local ad model is viable, is a far greater threat, IMHO.

PPM (see NH's first post) will definitely be a more accurate system. Based on numbers in Philly in Houston it will show that more people are listening to radio than previously thought, and they also listen to more stations, but for considerably less time on each station.

At least in theory, advertisers buy commercials in certain shows because they work for them. The day the switch is flipped to PPM in Boston the actual audiences of these shows will not change at all, only the perceived size of these audiences. If I'm advertising in Rush and moving product, the amount of product that I move will not change if the ratings tell me he's now 4th instead of 1st (as in NH's example). Perhaps I will be inclined to try advertising in the shows that rank 1-3, but depending on the audience, there is no guarantee it will work better for me than Rush.

Celtic, advertisers don't sue for underdelivery. Traditionally radio advertisers pay and take their chances. Of course in the interest of maintaining relationships (and ultimately getting more money), stations will "take care of" advertisers that severely underdeliver with extra spots when they can. This will change next year as Arbitron's PPM goes into more markets and the industry begins formally "posting" (offering additional rating points to make up for underdelivery). This practice has gone on in TV for many years. Radio is hopeful that this increased accountability will help gain advertisers as they will be able to be more confident in their investment.

Research Director,

Kudos to you for one of the most intelligent, most cogent posts in here ever! Nicely done. You clearly know your spit.

Research Director,

Excellent post. But am I incorrect to assume that people selling local avails on Rush's show (to continue in my example if he is really #4 instead of the perceived #1) will be faced with lowered ad rates?

To take my example a step further, let's assume Sean Hannity is really #1. Since WRKO doesn't carry Hannity, will WRKO's advertisers be justified in questioning their ad rates? I'm willing to bet part of the Rush Limbaugh spot pitch from the WRKO sales team includes words to the effect of: "Now, you and your business will be featured on the most listened to show in America. You will look like a big shot in Boston". (I have some, ahem, experience in this regard)

Now, of course, a true representation of the ratings and as rates will all balance out when shows that are falsely rated high fall back to their realistic position and shows that hardly register today reveal themselves to be well listened to. But what of the huge contracts? Limbaugh for 8 years for a total approaching $400 million, Hannity making around $14 million (or so, give or take a few million)per year and Glenn Beck recently signing a 5 year, $50 million deal. All these deals were made with the prevailing wisdom being that these were the preeminent shows on radio. What if the new system reveals they are merely mortal?

If that happens, I would be one highly pissed shareholder. (I would be so mad you would probably mistake me for an Entercom investor).

Also, do you believe that PPM is the answer? It seems to have a lot of questions as to its effectiveness and some of the big shots are witholding their endorsements and have even taken a few public pot shots at the early roll out.

Yes NH, the pecking order for rates might be affected and in your example, if Hannity over time proves to be higher ranked/rated than Limbaugh it should command a higher price. Your basic point, "what if the methodology changes the perceived value of the shows previously considered to be the best" is a valid one. From the admittedly small sample I have seen though, the bigger problem is that stations are losing their TSL and many small stations that never showed up before are generating a number, albeit small. Many are concerned that when these smaller stations are invited to the party, rates will be pushed down as everyone battles for share. Also, regardless of whether the ranks change, the differences between stations are becoming compressed, so that even if Rush stays #1, the distance between him and #3 or #5 is getting smaller. (Making up numbers here...) If Rush did a 1.0 in the old universe and the #3 show did a .5, but in the new universe, Rush is still #1 with a .8 and #3 is at .6, is Rush still worth twice as much?

Having said all that, a lot of local advertisers don't even buy on the numbers. The sales are more conceptual and they are judged by their effectiveness for the advertiser. The bigger advertisers and the agencies (local and national) will look at numbers, but there are a surprising number of people who will make an investment in a station or a personality based on their perceived value of the deal, or perhaps their real or perceived qualitative compatibility with the station or host. This is how some of the lower rated stations (like WRKO) survive, why Howie is so valuable to them and why good salespeople make huge money.

As for the voracity of PPM, it is far from perfect, but it is better than the diary. Also, when you hear people rail against it, be sure to look at what their stake is in it. Arbitron has some work to do on consistency of sample, but it is fairly common for some of the smaller (particularly younger) cells to have stability issues during the rollout process. People also fear change.

As far as Entercom shareholders go, anyone holding shares in companies whose primary source of revenue is advertising better have a strong stomach at this point. I'm fairly plugged in to the sector and while they lose points because they are a pure radio play (as opposed to CBS or Cox that are more diversified), I don't find them to be worse operationally than the field (no pun intended). I've worked in a few cluster situations and the odds of all stations firing on all cylinders at once are pretty slim. WRKO is in the barrel now for sure, but at least their Boston cluster have some winners to fall back on.