Nearly three weeks after Scott Brown’s earth-shattering political triumph over the entrenched political establishment, it’s clear those on the losing end have barely begun to lick their wounds. They never saw this coming and were done in by extreme complacency.
Talk radio was huge for Brown. Yes, the dearth of exit polling in the Brown-Martha Coakley contest makes it hard to quantify its exact impact. But if you listened to Boston talk radio during the race — commercial talk, as opposed to the sedate stylings of NPR affiliates WBUR and WGBH — you know that this segment of the airwaves was, overwhelmingly, Brown country: a source of hope and good cheer when things looked grim, and a high-volume ally as the Brown juggernaut headed down the home stretch.
Consider, for example, the love lavished on Brown by WEEI, the sports-radio powerhouse that doubles as a source of conservative commentary. On primary day, Gerry Callahan, half of the duo behind its morning drive-time Dennis & Callahan, tossed Brown this softball: “Does it make any sense to you that people follow this far-left agenda, and want another far-left loon like [Senator John] Kerry, like [Congressman Barney] Frank, like [Congressman Edward] Markey, like the rest of them?” And shortly before the election, Glenn Ordway, host of the afternoon drive-time Big Show, and three Big Show associates (Pete Sheppard and former New England Patriots Fred Smerlas and Steve DeOssie) appeared in a video in which they gushingly endorsed the Republican. (Brown “believes in a country that’s sovereign,” Smerlas explained, sort of.)
Yes, WEEI, WTKK-FM, WBZ, WXTK-FM on the Cape, WBSM in New Bedford, WCRN in Worcester and other stations all played a role, but I don’t think Scott would be where he is today without Carr, who is heard statewide on several of those stations.
Carr’s presence alone didn’t put Brown over the top, it was the longtime afternoon host’s change in strategy that made the difference. Until the primary election, Howie’s focus was on saving Scott from the embarrassment of likely defeat by insisting he was merely warming up for a later statewide campaign.
Something clicked, however, once the general election campaign was underway. Howie shed the defeatist attitude and learned to exercise some muscle for a change. The audience was more than receptive and got to work immediately. Once it became clear he truly believed Scott could win, it became a campaign worth an investment of time and money.
New England has always had the benefit of a great deal of local talk versus a national landscape cluttered with (largely unsuccessful) syndicated fare, but the US Senate campaign represented the first time in years hosts really stepped up to the plate and led the way.
From here, anything is possible. Let’s hope defeatism has been abolished for good.
— David Rodham Gergenis a WINNER in the Senate election battle? His boneheaded “Kennedy seat” loaded question gave birth to Scott’s brilliant reply: “it’s the people’s seat.” Only a Globie could come up with crap like this.
On December 8 2009,I wrote this and the reaction was laughter. Almost no one thought Scott could win.
So what has changed between the time that was written and today? How important was Brown’s campaign structure? Howie Carr’s on-air support? Blogs and talk radio?
Let’s hear from you below.
First, the flashback:
Memo To Scott Brown: Don’t Make Capuano’s Mistakes
by Brian Maloney, December 8th, 2009 at 11:30pm
With the results in, it’s already clear that Michael Capuano blew an enormous opportunity to win the Democratic nomination by failing to go negative against Martha Coakley (for fear of a backlash) and draw a clear distinction on the issues.
Now, Republican nominee Scott Brown has just six weeks to learn from Capuano’s mistakes and take a wildly different approach.
Think Brown can’t win? Here’s why he can:
— With local media outlets already declaring Coakley our next senator, Martha’s infamous coasting will become even more pronounced. She will put next to nothing into her effort from here, saving campaign funds for future purposes.
— Since Coakley’s supporters now assume the race is over, they will do little campaigning over the holidays.
— Given that backdrop, turnout on January 19 will be even lower than today’s. We could be well into single digits across the Commonwealth. Motivating your base, even one as small as the GOP’s, makes it possible to overcome that.
— At the national level, Democrats are busy alienating almost every group, from the far-left to moderates, which further depresses turnout as supporters become disillusioned.
— Oddly enough, the one media outlet seeing a potential victory path for Brown, if remote, is the New York Times:
About 37 percent of the state’s 4.1 million registered voters are Democrats, and about 11 percent are Republicans, giving Ms. Coakley an advantage over Mr. Brown in the general election. Although Massachusetts has elected three Republican governors since 1990, it has not sent a Republican to the Senate in 37 years.
Mr. Brown, 50, is a lawyer and a lieutenant colonel in the Massachusetts National Guard who has served in the state Legislature since 1996. He opposes same-sex marriage and the health care legislation being debated in Congress, and supports President Obama’s decision to send more troops to Afghanistan.
Winning unaffiliated voter, who make up half of the state’s electorate, will be crucial for Mr. Brown. He has touted his ability to work across party lines, while casting himself as the only candidate with conservative values.
Since almost no one believes Brown can win, what does he have to lose? Why not put the pedal to the floor and see what happens?
Here’s what he must do next:
— Make it clear: this is about the economy, jobs, and taxes. These are winnable positions for Republicans. Set the agenda, it’s not difficult, as Martha’s sole “issue” is her gender.
— Muzzle Howie Carr’s defeatist attitude. Hey Howie, why not help, rather than hinder Brown’s efforts? I cringe every time I hear Howie say that Scott’s only in the race to get his name out there so he can run for AG or another statewide office. Even if true, why say that on the air?
— ABSOLUTELY go after Coakley EVERY SINGLE DAY. Make her life miserable for the next six weeks, that’s what campaigning is all about. And she most certainly deserves it! There’s no reason she should have a free ride simply because that pleases Margery Eagan and the others who failed to nominate Hillary Clinton in 2008.
There’s plenty of ammo out there on Coakley, use it. When Eagan and the Globies are writing angry columns in response, you’ll know you’ve done your job correctly.
— INSIST on a series of debates and scream bloody murder if she refuses. Local media outlets have held debates without Republicans to this point, why should that continue?
— IMMEDIATELY begin a major push for out-of-state contributions. Coakley’s been doing this all along, why shouldn’t the opposition?
— Put together some money and hammer her with ads! Utilize talk radio and finally, let’s see some mailers.
There is no reason whatsoever for Scott Brown to play it safe for the next six weeks. Playing nice or accepting a token opposition candidate role is unacceptable and will only make the margin wider. Worse, a weak result from that kind of misguided strategy will make running for other positions down the road more difficult than ever.
But even a fairly close race would show that Republicans are once again viable in Massachusetts. The New York Times is right: those unaffiliated voters (who stayed home today) are up for grabs. Rile them up.
Bottom line: nice = big loss, while aggressive campaigning is a game-changer.
— Maddow links robocalls for Joe Kennedy to voter confusion, then why does Joe have only 1% of the vote
— Another unwatched MSNBC host, Rachel Maddow appears to deliver the bad news
— Chris Matthews is rambling on about Haiti and “wars”, have another drink, buddy
— Brown winning Quincy is huge, that’s not GOP territory, it’s a fairly large city
— some of Brown’s best suburbs on the North Shore have yet to report
— It looks like a funeral at MSNBC right now, Chris Matthews looks glum, am I the only person watching?
— Brown not doing as badly as one would expect in Boston, but it’s a bit early there
— Brown wins several outer / lower Cape towns that went for Obama in 2008
— Brown winning Plymouth, Obama won there in 2008
— Very difficult to reach Herald and Globie websites, isn’t it?
— Just returned from last-minute sign-waving outside the precinct. Brown supporters upbeat, one die-hard Coakley backer there as well. Lots of friendly waves and honks…
— Looks like Martha’s banking on placing a cloud over the election with her crazy tampering allegation. But who will believe that the GOP has fixed the election in Cambridge and Brighton? Isn’t that a joke?
— RNC’s Michael Steelearriving in Boston to celebrate potential win. But if Scott wins, it will be despite the national party’s efforts, not because of it.
— GLOBIES CALL IT FOR MARSHA? Yes, it’s a practice page, but you’ve got to love their wishful thinking
— I’m hearing from a number of listeners who are baffled as to why WRKO would preempt Rush Limbaugh at such an important time. Sure, local talent is filling in, but Rush is talking about Massachusetts! So why the switcheroo?
I believe this is Entercom’s way of sticking it to Limbaugh’s syndicator ahead of a likely move to Clear Channel’s new talk station, scheduled to debut here in April. Expect more petty silliness between now and then.
In my area, however, this isn’t a problem: WXTK-FM offers a excellent alternative.
We’ll cover the issue more after the election is sorted out.
… As we’ve got a cockroach problem here in Massachusetts. (Fraudulently) appointed House of Lords life peer Paul Kirk (address him as Lord Kirk) just can’t be trusted to leave office at 12:01am Wednesday. Instead, this creep is going to fight to remain in power until forced out.
In fact, I suspect if he could get away with it, the special election would be cancelled and Kirk would serve out the rest of Kennedy’s term. Even Martha Coakley is a threat to this mega-creep.
Democrats in Massachusetts have talked about delaying Brown’s “certification,” should he defeat Democrat Martha Coakley on Tuesday. Their aim would be to allow Kirk to remain in the Senate and vote the health care bill.
But based on Massachusetts law, Senate precedent, and the U.S. Constitution, Republican attorneys said Kirk will no longer be a senator after election day, period. Brown meets the age, citizenship, and residency requirements in the Constitution to qualify for the Senate. “Qualification” does not require state “certification,” the lawyers said.
An appointed senator’s right to vote is not dependent on whether his successor has been certified, the lawyers said. In Massachusetts, the election of a senator must be certified by the governor, the governor’s council, and the secretary of state – all of them Democrats.
If Brown wins narrowly and a recount is being conducted, Democratic lawyers might claim that he hasn’t been “duly elected.” Republican attorneys believe, however, that a candidate has actually been elected, though it won’t be clear who that is until the recount is completed. In Massachusetts, a recount can occur if the margin of victory is less than half a percent of the total vote.
Republican lawyers have examined Massachusetts particularly to find the rules governing a recount. They also studied the law passed after Kennedy’s death on a Senate successor.
At The Hill, Kirk makes it appear he supports an orderly transition, but one that gives him at least ten extra days in office. It’s when one reads between the lines in the confusing scenario he presents that it becomes clear he’ll be happy for extra time should the Dems succeed in pulling a Franken-Gregoire (recounting votes endless until their candidate wins).
Barnes is correct: Kirk is out no matter what happens. Tuesday MUST be his last day, even if he has to be forcibly removed from the Senate chamber.
Beacon Hill legislators created a monster in the appointment of Kirk, a factor that may be contributing to Coakley’s weakness. I saw this point cited on today’s Meet The Press.
— Coakley’s now-infamous rape-themed smear piece is generating a great deal of negative attention, especially since the Brown campaign has threatened legal action if Coakley refuses to disavow its deplorable contents. The Washington Post has more in an AP story.
Just returned from visiting Scott Brown’s campaign events in Plymouth and was stunned by the size of the crowd. At the entrance to the Shops at Five shopping center there, hundreds (500? More?) of rabid Scott Brown fans waved signs, listened to a brief speech and jostled about for autographs (!!). Cars passing by on busy Long Pond Road were honking and otherwise signaling their approval.
One block away, a few dozen Coakley supporters were spread out on all four corners of the intersection leading to Home Depot and the infamous Plymouth House of Corrections (where a lot of their bra $tuffing friends ought to go). They looked like they’d rather be somewhere else. Didn’t see anyone honk or wave and they took off long before Brown’s event was over.
At the Brown event, the energy and enthusiasm was unlike anything I’ve seen for a Republican in Massachusetts (or even a Democrat in recent years). Brown has successfully tapped into a collective sense of revulsion.
But there’s an added element: we’ve seen one of our local state reps suddenly transformed into a major national political figure, a development that must surprise even Brown himself.
Beltway pundits and Democratic operatives are busy trying to portray this as a screw-up by Coakley, but the truth is that Brown’s potential victory on Tuesday will the result of his hard work, effective campaign organization (another rarity for Mass Republicans!) and incredibly dedicated supporters.
— Here’s a surprise: the Cape Cod Timeshas endorsed Scott Brown. Coming from a fairly hard core lefty newsroom, that was not expected. But Cape Wind may have been the deciding factor: Brown is opposed, Coakley supports.
The Times has adamantly opposed Cape Wind for years.
— Watch for: can we have our state back please? I realize the Senate race has national implications, but it feels like we’ve been hijacked by outside interests who’ve poured in at the last minute. I’ll have more to say about this soon.
Will Obama’sSunday Bay State visit help or hurt Martha Coakley’s sagging excuse for a campaign? And why would he place the election ahead of helping Haiti recover?
— Meanwhile, Rush Limbaugh is warning Massachusetts-based listeners to be on the lookout for whatever last-minute hit piece The Globies may be cooking up as we speak. We’ve been warning about a Sunday Smear for days here at this site.
Limbaugh speculates that Obama may use the Sunday Smear itself in his campaigning for Coakley later that day. Whatever the hit may contain, count on The Globies sharing it with the White House ahead of time so that their candidate is prepared to exploit the story.
Howie Carr, a radio personality on WRKO Radio, received two verbal threats on his cell phone on Jan. 6 at 4 p.m. The first caller threatened to kill Carr with an “ice pick stuck into his ear,” and the second that he, as well as the woman who answered the phone for him while he was on-air, would be killed.
Carr told police he has no idea who could be threatening him, but has given out his cell phone number to numerous people. Police are investigating the phone numbers on which the calls to the cell phone were made.
— Luckily, the Dem hit piece (since pulled) that dared to use the World Trade Center towers has been preserved on YouTube.
— Why do Dems believe Vicki Kennedy has the ability to help Coakley? Why did Kennedy steal Scott Brown’s debate line? Time to put down the crack pipe?
